Traits accompanying Russian aggression abroad

1. “Separatist” movements and/or pro-Russian groups with ties to the Kremlin¹

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2000 - Anti-Russian separatists in Chechnya and Dagestan were problematic for Russia. There is no evidence the US supported these groups, and the US did not recognize Chechen independence. Still, belief that the US armed separatists may partially explain another part of Putin’s methodology. Russia also attempts to co-opt the language of NATO to legitimize its actions.

Common claims the US supported Chechnya relate to a Stinger missile. A think tank based in Moscow mentioned a Stinger missile obtained by Chechnya as from Afghanistan. The US had provided these to Mujahideen².

2. “Threats” to Russian speakers or claims of “genocide” that are not supported by evidence

1999 - Imitating NATO: A Script Is Adapted for Chechnya³
2004 - Claims of Russian genocide or “ethnocide” in Ukraine
2014 - Crying Genocide: Use and Abuse of Political Rhetoric in Russia and Ukraine
2022 - Putin’s claims that Ukraine is committing genocide are baseless, but not unprecedented

3. Pipeline explosions, specifically those that carry Russian gas to other countries⁴

Some of these could be legitimate accidents from improperly operated or maintained infrastructure, but

4. Further exploitation related to energy

Figure 1. Brown, 2019⁵

2009 - Gas crises between Russia and Ukraine
2015 - Russia resumed shipments of natural gas to Ukraine on Tuesday after a six-month shut-off
1995-2015 - Price Manipulations by Russia
2022 - On April 27, Russia cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria in a move the European Commission called “blackmail.”

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