Putin's cancelled speech appears to have set Moscow ablaze with anxiety. For a hypothetical family of three (let's say a mom, a dad, and an adult son), a flight from Moscow to Istanbul is now approaching $3200.
Depending on the destination or carrier that price can go even higher. The average for this particular flight appears to be half of the current going rate.
For around $5,000 you can still fly to Iran with a stop in Turkey. Or for $7,000 you can fly from Moscow to Azerbaijan to Berlin.
No idea if they would be allowed to go to Germany, but they can buy the tickets, it seems. For $8653 the three could go one-way to Hong Kong.
What is up with this flight? It says three economy tickets to Hong Kong for three is $54,000. It's got a layover in Dubai overnight.
Several destinations in Africa appear viable from but the price is likely well outside the average Russian's reach. Tickets to Lagos Nigeria are available for around $10,000. I'm not sure whether it would be possible to find work and stay or if they would have to go elsewhere.
Flights to Nairobi remain inexpensive, even below the norm at around $300 to $400 per person. Other destinations like Johannesburg, South Africa are approaching $50,000 for three one-way tickets.
A practical location for many Russians may be Georgia. Tickets there vary but you're looking at $4000 to $5000 right now. Rent in regions surrounding Russia has risen since Feb 2022 because of Russians leaving so it's possible finding a place to live and work might be hard.
Now, if you want to fly somewhere else in Russia, that's going to be a lot more affordable. From Moscow to St. Petersburg will run you under $100 for the family. It's $33 a ticket.
Brazil will run about $10,000 for the three one-way tickets at the least. Most of the flights would run around $12,000 for three.
Something I don't understand (and I'm not an expert in flight pricing) is why we see three tickets to Istanbul here, not even in the high price range for date on the same day that another set of economy tickets would run you $5000.
I'm sure the number who want to leave right now is higher than this time last year because of the war. Over 4 million Russians have left Russia since Feb. So, I wonder if it's elevated generally and also over those who wanted to leave about a week ago.
Nearly 4M Russians Left Russia in Early 2022 - FSB - The Moscow Times
More than 3.8 million Russians have left the country in the first three months of 2022, according to data from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) this week. A total of 3,880,679 Russians traveled for work, business, tourism and private reasons between January and March.
What's bizarre is how much it costs to fly to Kaliningrad versus Riga, which is closer.
Not to worry. Margarita is here to reassure the public.
Riga to Istanbul for three tomorrow ($383 to $436)
Moscow to Istanbul for three tomorrow ($1500 to 5200+)
Stockholm to Istanbul for three tomorrow.
Paris to Istanbul.
One thing is certain, whether the volume of people who wanted to leave increased over the already elevated numbers leaving the country, these flights are well out of reach for most Russians. Millions have left the country since the start of the war--and before it too. An analysis of available data suggests that total emigration from Russia between 2000 and 2020 was between 4 and 5 million people. Here we are talking only about citizens of the Russian Federation. Another 4 million left in early 2022.
5 Million Russian Citizens Left Russia Under Putin - The Moscow Times
Young, well-educated Russians are seeking a better life abroad. Five million people have left Russia during the 20 years of President Vladimir Putin's rule, according to a study published by the Moscow-based Takie Dela portal. The study used official data from Rosstat, the state statistics service, of Russian citizens who canceled their registrations in Russia.
100 years ago Russia’s Bolshevik govt put the country’s thinkers who opposed communism and revolutionary terror on boats and shipped them off. That went down in history as the “philosophers’ steamer.”Leaving is, in some ways, tradition at this point. The less successful the Russian army in Ukraine is, the more Putin’s secret services and the police will turn their attention to those opposing Putin’s war and his dictatorship.20% wanted to leave before the renewed invasion.
Emigration 2022: A School of Democracy for Russian Refugees
BY BORIS GROZOVSKY Hundreds of thousands of Russians who have left their country because of the war that Putin unleashed on Ukraine have the opportunity to make a significant contribution to Russia's future democratization. But first they themselves must adapt to living in liberal democracies.
One in five Russians (20%) said they would like to leave Russia if they could in 2019. 12% who approved of Putin wanted to leave. 40% who did not wanted to leave.
What makes you think they are "ablaze with anxiety"?
OK, forgive me. That wasn't the best wording AND IF TWITTER GAVE ME AN EDIT BUTTON I WOULD HAVE GONE BACK and clarified. I didn't expect the thread to take off, but I'm glad it did because here we are chatting.
Not everyone was anxious; some people are down right celebratory, elated at the prospect of full mobilization. Those who were anxious wondered what Kadyrov meant tonight. Pro-Kremlin voices suggested it was a big deal and the stakes grow higher daily.
Uncertainty triggers information seeking behaviors while also affecting our information processing. It may make us more likely to believe false claims, make us more suspicious. Then we also see our usual suspects trying to calm people down.
Where have I seen that before? Ah yes, the time when there was absolutely no panic!
Some of it was probably frustration more than anything. People waited two hours to hear news they believed was highly consequential. Don't forget how many are already dead or missing. Some raged. Others joked. Responses seemed standard for uncertainty. OK except the Putin...poem.
First people talked about their excitement. Then it became tiredness and anxiety. After a while, many joked about how much they were drinking and seemed less willing to wait. A common response to being told to go to bed sans news was that they couldn't sleep. Some of the more terse exchanges happened between people exasperated at delayed mobilization and those who asked whether they had sent a husband or son away.
Historically, mothers of soldiers in Russia have had some political power, as much as a group in Russia can have anyhow. Here are some comments:How terrible life has become. My grandson is 8 years old. We bring up correctly, patriotically. But, if it was 18, then mobilization or prison. Is it possible to survive? No, do not survive Bitterness, fear for children is unbearable.
Person A: Shoigu will still speak there, which means mobilization for sure. Hooray three times. Person B: Why are you happy? You don't have a father? Brothers? Children? Person C: Mobilization speak. And the children of bureaucrats will go first? Let them show patriotism
The grandmother who voiced concern was admonished and some wondered whether he comments would be deleted -- they expected it. Eventually the grandmother said:
"Thank you very much for your kind words. I am old . It hurts me to worry. My comment is stupid. I regret writing."
According to Soloviev Putin says:
Russia will support the decision made by the residents of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions."
A partial mobilization has been announced and will begin today. Looks like most of the flights I was tracking are sold out now-- two hours after announcement.
Tickets from Moscow to St. Petersburg have increased to around 13x the price of several hours ago.
Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up
GDANSK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists. Putin's announcement, made in an early-morning television address, raised fears that some men of fighting age would not be allowed to leave the country.
UPDATE on flights out of Moscow, search engine trends, and propaganda and the mobilization inside of Russia.