Most Russians say their country is moving in the right direction and do not feel morally responsible for deaths in Ukraine
Nearly 3/4 of Russians still support their government's actions in Ukraine.
Nearly 3/4 of Russians still support the war in Ukraine, at 71%. 41% definitely supported the war; 30% somewhat supported it, and 21% do not support it. Still, concern about events in Ukraine has risen with 46% very worried and 38% somewhat worried.
- People who trust TV as their main source of news (86%) and those who approve of Putin (82%) tend to support the war in Ukraine. 79% of Russians aged fifty-five years or older indicated support for the war, and 73% followed the war closely.
- 59% of Russians aged eighteen to twenty-four years indicated they supported the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. This was the least supportive group.
- 84% of Russians report concern about events in Ukraine, but those who are fifty-five years or older are most worried, at 92%. People who worry very little or not at all remain a small minority at 14%.
For 2022, 48% named Vladimir Putin "Person of the Year."
Sergei Lavrov came in second with 8%, followed by Mikhail Mishustin, Alexander Lukashenko, and Sergei Shoigu with 7%.
- Putin's approval rose to 81% and his disapproval dropped to 17%.
- Mikhail Mishustin's approval rating improved by 3 points to 71%. His disapproval dropped to 23% from 25%.
- 68% approved of the government's work, an increase of three points from November. Disapproval declined from 31% in November to 28% in December. Also from December polling, 57% of respondents approved of the activities of the lower chamber, while 37% disapproved.
Most Russians do not feel morally responsible for Ukraine but expect political tensions in 2023
Most do not feel morally responsible for deaths in Ukraine
About one-third of respondents think people like them are morally responsible for deaths and destruction in Ukraine, and 59% disagree. This ratio has not changed since August.
Most Russians expect political tensions in 2023
The latest poll, published December 27, shows a ten-point increase in people, now 70%, who believe the next year will be tense for political life in Russia.
Despite the war, uncertainty is lower than it was a year ago
Around 2/3 of people surveyed indicated they are hopefully for next year and uncertainty declined by four points compared to this time last year. The lack of uncertainty is notable given that Russia hadn't begun its renewed invasion of Ukraine at this time last year. Only 5% expect 2023 to be worse than 2022.
Whether this expectation is a problem may remain tethered to how effective the Kremlin is at controlling perceptions.
Increase in Russians who feel the country is headed in the right direction
The proportion of people who think the country is going in the right direction increased in late December compared to earlier in the month. We should view an indication that Russians think the country is going in the right direction in context of how Russians experienced 2022 in comparison to other years.
Russians felt that 2020 was more difficult for the country than 2022, although they clearly also saw 2022 as a hard year, with 76% saying 2022 was more difficult than 2021.
Russians rated the early 1990s as worse, but not by much
The early 1990s were also trying according to historical data from the same organization still polling Russians today. Regarding perception of the year for individuals, the year rated about the same as 2021.
Most Russians, 57%, rated 2022 as an average year, compared to 59% in 2021. Just 30% felt it was a bad year, which is a two-point increase over 28% from 2021. While only 14% said it was a good year, there has rarely been a year where over 20% of Russians responded that it had been a good year.
When asked if the country was headed in the right direction, 64% felt it was, an increase of three points. People who felt Russia was going in the wrong direction, dropped three points, compared to November, to 24%.
Support for Russia's actions in Ukraine often predicts support for Putin
People who approve of Putin tend to support the Russian military's actions in Ukraine. Those who disapprove of Putin tend not to support the war. The older someone is and the more someone trusts television as a source of information, the more likely they are to support the war in Ukraine.
More people support peace talks than want the war to continue.
- On December 22, 2022, 50% of people supported peace talks. In August, 48% supported the talks. The percentage supporting peace talks reached 57% in October before declining to 50%.
- People may not be shifting to support the war, but rather may feel unable to respond to the question. The percentage of responses that were unable to answer in October was 7%. In December, 10% were not able to answer. The percentage decline in support for peace talks in that time frame was 7%, falling from 57% to 50% support.
How Russians supported their stances
The December survey asked why people supported whichever stance (peace talks or continued fighting) they had. Supporters of peace talks wanted to stop the deaths.
Some supporters of the war displayed what appeared to be sunk cost bias, while others made statements that seemed openly genocidal.
Methodology
The methodology for the four reports is the same is comes from the same data collection from December 15 to 21, 2022. Information from inside Russia must be viewed with reservations; however, this has historically been a reliable source of opinion polling in Russia, something the regime also requires to gauge the effectiveness of information control strategies.
The Russian Federation mandates that content produced by the Levada center has a disclaimer:
The all-Russian survey by the Levada Center was conducted on December 15-21, 2022, based on a representative all-Russian sample of the urban and rural population of 1,611 people aged 18 and over in 137 settlements, 50 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The study is conducted at the respondent's home by the method of personal interview. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number.
The statistical error in a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
- 3.4% for indicators close to 50%
- 2.9% for indicators close to 25% / 75%
- 2.0% for indicators close to 10% / 90%
- 1.5% for indicators close to 5% / 95%
This report continues previous coverage of Russian perceptions of the war based on polling from the Levada Center.
